Les Miles managed the endgame terribly

In case anybody missed it, the final of the
LSU-Auburn game was fantastic this past
Saturday. LSU came back from a 17-7
deficit to gain a 23-17 lead. With 3:35 to go
in the game, Auburn scored a TD and hit
the xp for a 24-23 advantage. After six
plays and a nice spot, LSU had moved to
the Auburn 25 and Les Miles decided to
slow his offense down rather than stay in
a hurry-up scenario. LSU had a first down
and about 1:45 on the clock. This is a
crucial point where I believe Les Miles
really hurt his team's chances to win the
game.

Here is the yahoo summary of what
happened next:
1st-10, Aub25 1:30 M. Flynn rushed up
the middle for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, Aub23 0:50 M. Flynn passed to
R. Dickson to the right for 1 yard gain
3rd-7, Aub22 0:10 M. Flynn passed to
D. Byrd to the left for 22 yard touchdown.
C. David made PAT

Yuck! Despite a timeout and 1:30, LSU
under Miles direction played to make
that the last set of downs.

Basically, Miles decided to have one shot
at the goaline from 20+ yards away and
to have a FG chance, and I emphasize
the word chance, if that play didn't work
out. Now, many will point out how it
seemed Miles was playing for the FG and
how his deep pass suckered Auburn.
That just isn't the case; Auburn was not
suckered. The CB was running stride for
stride with the wideout. It took a near
perfect pass and a great reception to
complete that pass over very good
coverage.

In essence, Miles played for a 20+ yard
TD pass and a FG try of 36-40 versus
running the hurry-up for the last 1:30
to see if his team could drive and,
possibly, leaving some time on the clock
for Auburn if LSU scored early.

Even with a QB who was 21 0f 33 for 297
yards at that time, the chances of a 22 yd
TD pass are not good. Note that only 4
of LSU's passes during the rest of the
game were for more yards than that. At
this point, the best anyone can do is
guess at the likelihood of completing that
pass. I'll give Miles the benefit of the doubt
and say LSU had a 30% chance of hitting
the 22 yarder.

If they don't hit the pass, LSU would be
forced to attempt a FG about 39 yards.
Colt David was 14 of 19 for the year on
FGs, but those numbers are a fraud to
use out of context. This year, Colt David
is 12 for 12 inside 35 yards on FGs. He is
2 for 4 on 36-40, 0 for 2 on 41-45, and 0
for 1 on 50+. The misses in the 36-40
range where on his home field and in the
SuperDome! What does this mean?
It means that if LSU doesn't come up with
that TD pass, they are playing for a 50%
chance of making a FG.
For those that can do math, the way Les
Miles played the endgame gave LSU a
65% chance of winning the game.

Now, consider the alternative pathway for
Miles and the Bayou Bengals. 1:40 on the
clock and a first down at the Auburn 25.
Why not just stick with a slight hurry-up
version of the offense they'd run the whole
second half that allowed for first downs
and moving the ball in segments rather than
going for the whole chunk.
LSU had scored (2TDs, 2FGs) four times on
its five second half possessions. They were
averaging nearly 9 yards per pass attempt
and nearly 7 yards per play. For those that
don't track such things, that is extremely
successful movement of the ball. Their
recent drives were covering lots of yards,
40+ on all of them, and not taking much
time off the clock.

Yahoo's second half drive log for LSU:
time of poss/where drive began/# plays/
yards/result
3:39 LSU 32 8 56 FG
2:38 LSU 4 8 45 Int
1:07 LSU 33 5 58 FG
2:18 LSU 16 8 84 TD
2:54 LSU 29 7 55 FG
3:12 LSU 42 9 58 TD

Considering LSU was one first down from
Colt David's 100% zone, the endzone
was only 25 yards away, LSU was on a roll
offensively against a tired defense, and the
time pressure wasn't bad with over a 1:30
on the clock with a timeout, I am dumb-
founded for why Les Miles played for only
a 65% chance to win the game. If they just
continued with a slight hurry-up, I have LSU
scoring a td 50% of the time and getting a FG
90% of the time they don't get a TD. There
would be little chance of Auburn scoring again
after an LSU score considering a large number
of those scores come very late in the game, less
than 20 seconds, and Auburn's offense hadn't
been very good the entire game (4.7 yppl). The
scoring drives for Auburn had all taken numerous
plays and over 4:30 on the gameclock. This was
not an offense that had a good chance to drive
the field in less than a minute.

I'm being very nice on Mr. Miles here with the
numbers and erroring to his side of things on
the scale. However, it looks like Miles turned a
game that had an 80%+ chance of LSU victory
into a game with only a 65% chance for LSU to
pull down the 'W'! That's not a gamble, that is
a blunder!