Digging Through the One Loss Teams

Right now, there are a mess of contenders
with one loss. I decided to apply the OTFRR
methodology to see how the teams measure
up. Let's see how everyone has done in W/L
compared to what we'd expect a #5 team to
do verse their respective schedules.

OTFRR#5 (Methodology)
Ohio State + 1.065 Expected 8.935 W 0.893 Winp
Kansas + 0.797 Expected 8.203 W 0.911 Winp
LSU + 0.662 Expected 7.338 W 0.815 Winp
Oregon + 0.469 Expected 7.531 W 0.837 Winp
Mizzou + 0.404 Expected 7.596 W 0.844 Winp
Arizona State + 0.318 Expected 7.682 W 0.854 Winp
West Virginia + 0.036 Expected 7.964 W 0.885 Winp
Oklahoma -0.013 Expected 8.013 W 0.890 Winp
Boston College -0.146 Expected 8.146 W 0.905 Winp

Digging through, the schedule strength from
easiest to hardest goes as follows:
Kansas
Boston College
Ohio State
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Arizona State
Mizzou
Oregon
LSU

As most college football experts hypothesize,
LSU and Oregon are the class of one-loss
teams. However, Mizzou is going under the
radar and should be getting some more
pub. They've looked impressive in a points
evaluations as well, which isn't considered
here. With Kansas and a potential BigXII
title game, Mizzou can make a major jump
in reality as well as in this evaluation tool.

I don't think Oregon can pass LSU if they
both run out the season due to LSU's lead
right now and the additional SEC title
game. But, alot can change. The SEC has
many intersectional games left that can
cause a change in how the LSU opponents
look at season's end.

Sorry UConn fans that I didn't consider you.
If your team wins next week, I'll have to add
in an evaluation.

Ohio State Jumps to #1! (Post Week 10 Results)

Sorry to my faithful readers, I've been
busy making money at actual work. As
a result, I've neglected the blogging
here. It's left me sad as I truly enjoy
doing this. Plus, I feel like I was
talking out of my ass somewhat this
week when I didn't have the numbers
behind me.

Anyway, after week 10 (through this
past Tuesday's results), Ohio State
has jumped to the top spot. Clearly,
the Boston College and Arizona State
defeats helped those two teams fall
from the spotlight. However, the
Jayhawks suprisingly fell in this
ranking system despite a 76-39 win
where they scored a TD on 10
consecutive drives. How did they
fall? Well, the Kansas strength of
schedule took a rather big tumble
this past week. The Jayhawks
resume had been built upon three
decent road wins against K St, Texas
A&M, and Colorado. All 3 looked
dreadful this past weekend and no
longer look as good as they did a
week previously. The most shocking
was K St who lost to Iowa State!
Colorado got pummeled by Mizzou.
The Sooners whupped up on A&M.
All 3 of the Jayhawks 'resume'
opponents were outright awful and
needed a re-evaluation.

On the other hand, we have tOSU's
resume games. Penn St won at home
by a score verse Purdue, so both teams
remain close to unchanged. Washington
moved up a tiny bit by having a
convincing win.

OTFRR#5 (methodology)
Ohio State +1.065W expected 8.935W 1.065L 0.893winp
Kansas +0.797W expected 8.203W 0.797L 0.911winp

Kansas' ranking actually dropped from
week 9 to week 10 despite winning
another ball game as K ST went from
a near 50/50 toss up to a game that
the #5 team should win 63% of the time.

Here are the estimates for the top two:

Ohio State if #5
Youngstown St 99.00%
Akron 99.00%
Washington 78.80%
N'Western 99.00%
Minnesota 93.46%
Purdue 73.43%
Kent St 99.00%
Mich St 90.44%
Penn St 71.95%
Wisconsin 89.39%

Kansas if #5
C Mich 99.00%
SE La 100.00%
Toledo 99.00%
FIU 100.00%
K St 62.87%
Baylor 99.00%
Colorado 81.75%
Texas A&M 82.83%
Nebraska 95.87%

The race for the best of the one-loss
teams is pretty exciting. I should've
posted before the WVU-L'ville game.
Oh well