Ohio State v LSU is the BCS solution

At least according to the methodology used here.
I went through and looked how the contenders compared to
what one would expect from the #2 team in the country.

The results were Ohio State and, by a very slim margin, LSU.
It appears as though the extra SEC title game vaults LSU to
the top.

+/- compared to a #2
Ohio State +0.212W 0.899p
LSU -0.259W 0.866p
USC -0.263W 0.855p
Georgia -0.288W 0.857p
V Tech -0.577W 0.891p
Oklahoma -0.628W 0.895p

Ohio State did have the weakest schedule as shown by 0.899
expected win percentage. However, the differences based on
percentage points are small and Ohio State did only lose once
compared to the other contenders.

Kansas Remains #1! Post Week 9

Methodology for ranking system. Rankings
are on-the-field win-loss results based.

So, another Saturday is in the books and it's
time to update the ratings. What follows is
the OTFRR#5 through Saturday, October
27th. The top 4 did not shift at all after all of
them surprisingly won their games, most in
dominating #1 fashion. The big news is that
Oregon has caught upto LSU among one loss
teams. Look for a post on the one-loss teams
coming up in the next few days.

Here are the rankings compared to a #5 team
Kansas +1.005W
Ohio State +0.887W
Arizona State +0.844W
Boston College +0.774W
Oregon +0.210W
LSU +0.204W

Kansas is over a full game ahead of what a
typical #5 team would be playing their
schedule. That's right-Kansas could've lost
a game this season and still had a top5 resume.

Oregon has played the toughest schedule so far
for the top 6 teams, but is essentially tied with
LSU for that honor. BC and Ohio State have
played the weakest schedules of the six teams
profiled here.

Expected #5 team performance for team schedules:
Oregon 6.790W 1.210L 0.8488winp
LSU 6.796W 1.204L 0.8495winp
Kansas 6.995W 1.005L 0.874winp
Arizona State 7.156W 0.844L 0.895winp
Ohio State 8.113W 0.887L 0.901winp
Boston College 7.226W 0.774L 0.903winp

Despite what the talking heads on tv say,
there are teams earning it on the field. The
tv pundits prefer to ignore it because it is
not the 'best' teams that are showing it on
the field. Sorry, it's not the 'best' team that
wins, it's the team with the best results.

Right now, I'd guess that Kansas and
Arizona State are the teams in control of
their destiny according to this ranking
system with BC a close third and Ohio
State a distant fourth.


Here are the details for each team:
Ohio State
Youngstown St 99.00%
Akron 99.00%
Washington 82.83%
N'Western 97.51%
Minnesota 93.33%
Purdue 73.76%
Kent St 99.00%
Mich St 93.15%
Penn St 73.76%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.3707
8 0.4150
7 0.1753
6 0.0352
5 0.0036
4 0.0002
3 0.0000
2 0.0000
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

Boston College
Wake Forest 89.33%
NC St 96.31%
G Tech 73.99%
Army 99.00%
Umass 99.00%
B Green 99.00%
N Dame 91.96%
V Tech 73.99%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.0000
8 0.4203
7 0.4113
6 0.1443
5 0.0225
4 0.0017
3 0.0001
2 0.0000
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

Arizona State
SJ ST 99.00%
Colorado 87.40%
SD ST 97.51%
Org St 80.02%
Stanford 86.57%
Wazzu 94.15%
Washington 94.74%
Cal 76.24%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.0000
8 0.3975
7 0.4030
6 0.1622
5 0.0334
4 0.0038
3 0.0002
2 0.0000
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

Kansas
C Mich 99.00%
SE La 100.00%
Toledo 99.00%
FIU 100.00%
K St 50.83%
Baylor 99.00%
Colorado 73.43%
Texas A&M 78.27%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.0000
8 0.2835
7 0.4641
6 0.2177
5 0.0339
4 0.0009
3 0.0000
2 0.0000
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

LSU
Miss St 94.15%
V Tech 88.44%
MTSU 99.00%
S Car 88.94%
Tulane (N) 99.00%
Florida 68.67%
Kentucky 69.15%
Auburn 72.23%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.0000
8 0.2490
7 0.4044
6 0.2547
5 0.0785
4 0.0124
3 0.0010
2 0.0000
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

Oregon
Houston 94.74%
Michigan 69.01%
Fresno St 95.05%
Stanford 86.57%
Cal 76.24%
Wazzu 97.51%
Washington 83.68%
USC 76.24%

WINS P
12 0.0000
11 0.0000
10 0.0000
9 0.0000
8 0.2552
7 0.3969
6 0.2495
5 0.0817
4 0.0150
3 0.0016
2 0.0001
1 0.0000
0 0.0000

One Week Makes a Big Difference

Heading into this week's games, I want to use
the 4 undefeateds to highlight how big real
conference contests are at demonstrating who
are the best teams in the country.

Going into this week, we have four undefeateds
in the BCS conferences.
According to the OTFRR#5, here are the wins
ahead of a #5 team playing their schedule and
the chance a #5 team would be undefeated
right now having played those respective
schedules.
Kansas +0.703 0.4219
Ohio State +0.659 0.4872
Arizona State +0.619 0.5185
Boston College +0.461 0.6047

Now, assuming those teams all win and
using the post week 8 sagarin predictors,
we'd have the following:
Ohio State +0.951W 0.3452
Kansas +0.894W 0.3413
Arizona State +0.821W 0.4139
Boston College +0.663W 0.4828

There are quite a few things I want to
highlight from this exercise. One, notice
how each team's chances of being
undefeated are now below to way below
50% even assuming they were a #5 team.
Along with this, notice how the top teams
are nearly a full win above what one
would expect a top 5 team to be. That
means that even with one loss, they'd
almost be right on the pace of a top 5
team playing their schedule.

Secondly, the potential week 9 
numbers show Ohio St jumping Kansas
even though Kansas still has the least
chance of being undefeated. In this case,
it shows how the depth of opponents
and more games can overweigh verse a
schedule that has a few more really
tough games.

Finally, the chart lends to the argument
that perhaps the voters have gotten it
right all this time in putting undefeated
teams into the title game ahead of very
talented one loss teams. It appears that
even the softest of BCS conference
schedules separates the wheat from the
chaff.