First 2008 Rankings Are Here!

Methodology used

Well, the BCS announced it's rankings this week, so I thought I might as well get cracking and post the BAW5 rankings for title contenders. With apologies to Georgia Tech, Pitt, Tulsa, and Ball State, I only considered Texas, Alabama, Penn State, Florida, Georgia, LSU, USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Utah in this poll. I just figured those were the 12 teams with the best case for national title consideration by the end of the year. I'll likely put up Tulsa and Ball State if they keep winning as other major contenders fall away. Keep in mind that this is an early poll subject to all the issues of early polls. Without further verbage, here are the rankings of the 12 contenders:
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Penn State
5. Ohio State
6. Utah
7. Texas Tech
8. Oklahoma
9. Georgia
10. LSU
11. USC
12. Florida

Here is how the number 5 team in the country should have done verse each team's respective schedule and the BAW5 ranking for how each team exceeded that number 5 team's win total.

	EW	EL	BAW5
Texas	5.881	1.119	1.119
Bama	6.100	0.900	0.900
Ok St	6.341	0.659	0.659
Penn St	7.369	0.631	0.631
Ohio St	6.505	1.495	0.495
Utah	7.535	0.465	0.465
T Tech	6.544	0.456	0.456
Oklahoma	5.719	1.281	0.281
Georgia	5.931	1.069	0.069
LSU	5.932	1.068	0.068
USC	4.990	1.010	0.010
Florida	5.353	0.647	-0.353

It's no surprise that Texas and Alabama lead here just as they do in the BCS polls. What is remarkable is that Oklahoma State is ahead of Penn State already.

Who of the 12 has played the easiest schedule so far? No surprise that it is Utah coming out of the weaker Mountain West.

Team	Epct
Utah	0.942
T Tech	0.935
Penn St	0.921
Ok St	0.906
Florida	0.892
Bama	0.871
LSU	0.847
Georgia	0.847
Texas	0.840
USC	0.832
Oklahoma	0.817
Ohio St	0.813

The Epct shows the expected win percentage for a number 5 team playing the respective schedules. What many might find shocking is that Ohio State has played the most difficult schedule thus far. This is due to the somewhat surprising strength of the bottom and middle of the Big Ten with the addition of a road game against USC. Another interesting result is that Penn State's schedule has been nearly as weak as Utah and Texas Tech.