First 2008 Conference Rankings

Which conference is the toughest? Well, that question is hard to answer. Following is the BAW analysis of playing every team in a conference on a neutral field:

		BAW5			BAW25			BAW50
		W	L	pct	W	L	pct	W	L	pct
	SEC	9.16	2.84	0.764	6.40	5.60	0.533	4.78	7.22	0.399
	BigTen	8.71	2.29	0.792	6.45	4.55	0.587	4.93	6.07	0.448
	BigXII	8.87	3.13	0.739	6.47	5.53	0.539	5.01	6.99	0.417
	ACC	9.95	2.05	0.829	7.37	4.63	0.614	5.62	6.38	0.468
	Pac10	8.43	1.57	0.843	6.56	3.44	0.656	5.41	4.59	0.541
	BigEast	6.82	1.18	0.852	5.37	2.63	0.671	4.2	3.8	0.526
	MountW	7.74	1.26	0.860	6.27	2.73	0.697	5.12	3.88	0.569

If I had to rate them based on BAW, I'd go
1. BigXII
2. SEC
3. Big Ten
4. ACC
5. Pac10
6. Big East
7. Mountain West

The debate between the BigXII and SEC is really close. It would be tougher for a top echelon team to play every BigXII team, but it would be easier for a middle of the pack team. The BigXII has a very weak base compared to the SEC but has the edge at the top. That is somewhat surprising and likely due to the collapse of Auburn, while Oklahoma State has surprised positively so well.

It's somewhat surprising that Big Ten came in 3rd in that there is a clear gap between the Big Ten and the ACC, Pac10, Big East grouping. The bottom of the Big Ten has shrunk with Indiana and Purdue being the only truly dreadful teams. In the last few years, one could point out 4 dreadful Big Ten teams in a season. Still, that rating systems such as sagarin would put the Big Ten number 2 right now highlights the problems with some of the widely used metrics for conference strength. It's clear that if a team had to play every team in a conference, that team would be insane to choose to play the SEC or BigXII ahead of the Big Ten.

Another interesting thing that I've seen is that it is nearly as tough for a top team to play every Mountain West team as it is the Pac10. Furthermore, the Pac10 is heavily reliant on USC to make it tough for a top team to play that conference. Without USC, it would be pretty easy for a top team to stroll through the Pac10 (0.881 expected win pct).